Thursday, May 19, 2011

Feeling poorer? No wonder! The numbers don't lie.


This collection of charts and graphs will explain why you may be feeling poorer lately.  The price of nearly everything has gone up over the past few years.  For example, meat and fresh vegetables have gone up 10% in the last year alone.  These price increases are sometimes so gradual that we don't notice them immediately. But the inflating prices are beginning to drag down the budgets of many families - ours included.  Last week I was in Canton and dropped by a Marc's store.  I was SO excited to see cereal for under $3 a box that I stocked up and loaded my cart with it (much to the chagrin of the poor girl stocking the shelves).   I felt like I had won the grocery lottery!  I'm not the only one who's noticed. The Plain Dealer reports:
Tom Heinen, co-president of Heinen's Fine Foods, said that without a doubt, "these are the most significant across-the-board increases I've seen in my life." Corn is selling at $8 a bushel, more than double the $3 or $4 it was selling at last year, which drives up costs for everything from cattle to cereal, he said. "There's nothing out there that's telling us that commodity and energy prices are coming down," he said. "We're probably going to see the highest food prices we've seen in a long time."
I'm having flashbacks to the 70's and the Carter years.  I have a  vivid memory of my mother coming home with our family's first can of SPAM - the first of many - an unfortunate result of the high cost of meat and everything else during Carter's rampant inflationary years.  We had SPAM sandwiches, fried SPAM, and SLT's - SPAM, lettuce, tomato sandwiches.


1975

Note that this 1970's SPAM ad is advertising "A lot of meat. But not a lot of money."  Ah, the good old days of Jimmy Carter!  Ryan, my computer geek Hillsdale College student tells me I should find some comfort in knowing that the percentage of the world population that consumes SPAM each day is 0.0000049%, which means it's highly unlikely that I will ever have to eat it again. (That private college tuition is really paying off!) Nevertheless, I do worry that we are heading back to the SPAM-Seventies:

1954





-Gasoline-Price


The graph reflects DOE's weekly survey (Sources).


Current Annual Inflation Rate
Current Annual Inflation Rate
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Ave
2011
1.63%
2.11%
2.68%
3.16%
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
2010
2.63%
2.14%
2.31%
2.24%
2.02%
1.05%
1.24%
1.15%
1.14%
1.17%
1.14%
1.50%
1.64%
2009
0.03%
0.24%
-0.38%
-0.74%
-1.28%
-1.43%
-2.10%
-1.48%
-1.29%
-0.18%
1.84%
2.72%
-0.34%
2008
4.28%
4.03%
3.98%
3.94%
4.18%
5.02%
5.60%
5.37%
4.94%
3.66%
1.07%
0.09%
3.85%
2007
2.08%
2.42%
2.78%
2.57%
2.69%
2.69%
2.36%
1.97%
2.76%
3.54%
4.31%
4.08%
2.85%
2006
3.99%
3.60%
3.36%
3.55%
4.17%
4.32%
4.15%
3.82%
2.06%
1.31%
1.97%
2.54%
3.24%
2005
2.97%
3.01%
3.15%
3.51%
2.80%
2.53%
3.17%
3.64%
4.69%
4.35%
3.46%
3.42%
3.39%
2004
1.93%
1.69%
1.74%
2.29%
3.05%
3.27%
2.99%
2.65%
2.54%
3.19%
3.52%
3.26%
2.68%
2003
2.60%
2.98%
3.02%
2.22%
2.06%
2.11%
2.11%
2.16%
2.32%
2.04%
1.77%
1.88%
2.27%
2002
1.14%
1.14%
1.48%
1.64%
1.18%
1.07%
1.46%
1.80%
1.51%
2.03%
2.20%
2.38%
1.59%
2001
3.73%
3.53%
2.92%
3.27%
3.62%
3.25%
2.72%
2.72%
2.65%
2.13%
1.90%
1.55%
2.83%
2000
2.74%
3.22%
3.76%
3.07%
3.19%
3.73%
3.66%
3.41%
3.45%
3.45%
3.45%
3.39%
3.38%
<500div style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;">
Note: Red indicates Deflation, NA indicates data not yet released.



YEARJANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVDECANN
2011
  220.223  221.309  223.467224.906
2010
  216.687  216.741  217.631218.009  218.178  217.965  218.011  218.312  218.439  218.711  218.803  219.179  218.056
2009
  211.143  212.193  212.709213.24  213.856  215.693  215.351  215.834  215.969  216.177  216.33  215.949  214.537
2008
  211.08  211.693  213.528214.823  216.632  218.815  219.964  219.086  218.783  216.573  212.425  210.228  215.303
2007
  202.416  203.499  205.352206.686  207.949  208.352  208.299  207.917  208.49  208.936  210.177  210.036  207.342
2006
  198.3  198.7  199.8201.5  202.5  202.9  203.5  203.9  202.9  201.8  201.5  201.8  201.6
2005
  190.7  191.8  193.3194.6  194.4  194.5  195.4  196.4  198.8  199.2  197.6  196.8  195.3
2004
  185.2  186.2  187.4188  189.1  189.7  189.4  189.5  189.9  190.9  191  190.3  188.9
2003
  181.7  183.1  184.2183.8  183.5  183.7  183.9  184.6  185.2  185  184.5  184.3  183.96
2002
  177.1  177.8  178.8179.8  179.8  179.9  180.1  180.7  181  181.3  181.3  180.9  179.88
2001
  175.1  175.8  176.2176.9  177.7  178  177.5  177.5  178.3  177.7  177.4  176.7  177.1
2000
  168.8  169.8  171.2171.3  171.5  172.4  172.8  172.8  173.7  174  174.1  174  172.2


"The Consumer Price Index (CPI-U)  is compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is based upon a 1982 Base of 100. A Consumer Price Index of 158 indicates 58% inflation since 1982. The commonly quoted inflation rate of say 3% is actually the change in the Consumer Price Index from a year earlier. By looking at the change in the Consumer Price Index we can see that what cost an average of 9.9 cents in 1913 would cost us about $1.82 in 2003 and $2.02 in 2007.
To find Prior Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on this table (back through 1913) click on the date range links below the table."

Food CPI and Expenditures: CPI for Food Forecasts

Excel icon Download this table in Excel format.
Changes in Food Price Indexes, 2008 through 2011April 25, 2011
Item
Relative importance1
Month-
to-
Month
Year-
over-
Year
Annual
Annual
Annual
Forecast
Feb2011 to Mar2011
Mar2010 to Mar2011
2008
2009
2010
20112
Consumer Price Indexes PercentPercent change
All food
100.0
0.7
2.9
5.5
1.8
0.8
3.0 to 4.0
Food away from home
43.1
0.3
1.9
4.4
3.5
1.3
3.0 to 4.0
Food at home
56.9
1.0
3.6
6.4
0.5
0.3
3.5 to 4.5
Meats, poultry, and fish
12.5
1.3
8.3
4.2
0.5
1.9
5.0 to 6.0Green arrow pointing upward indicating an increase
Meats
7.9
1.9
10.4
3.5
-0.6
2.8
6.0 to 7.0Green arrow pointing upward indicating an increase
Beef and veal
3.7
2.3
12.2
4.5
-1.0
2.9
7.0 to 8.0Green arrow pointing upward indicating an increase
Pork
2.5
2.3
11.2
2.3
-2.0
4.7
6.5 to 7.5Green arrow pointing upward indicating an increase
Other meats
1.7
0.3
5.5
3.1
2.3
-0.1
3.0 to 4.0
Poultry
2.4
0.0
2.2
5.0
1.7
-0.1
2.5 to 3.5
Fish and seafood
2.2
0.6
7.7
6.0
3.6
1.1
4.5 to 5.5
Eggs
0.7
-0.2
1.0
14.0
-14.7
1.5
4.5 to 5.5
Dairy products
6.1
1.3
3.7
8.0
-6.4
1.1
4.5 to 5.5
Fats and oils
1.7
1.8
7.9
13.8
2.3
-0.3
6.0 to 7.0Green arrow pointing upward indicating an increase
Fruits and vegetables
8.4
1.2
3.5
6.2
-2.1
0.2
3.5 to 4.5Green arrow pointing upward indicating an increase
Fresh fruits and
  vegetables
6.4
1.5
4.2
5.2
-4.6
0.6
3.5 to 4.5Green arrow pointing upward indicating an increase
Fresh fruits
3.3
-1.3
-1.5
4.8
-6.1
-0.6
3.0 to 4.0
Fresh vegetables
3.2
4.2
9.8
5.6
-3.4
2.0
4.5 to 5.5Green arrow pointing upward indicating an increase
Processed fruits and
  vegetables
1.9
0.3
1.2
9.5
6.6
-1.3
3.0 to 4.0
Sugar and sweets
2.2
0.7
2.8
5.5
5.6
2.2
2.5 to 3.5
Cereals and bakery
  products
7.9
0.5
1.8
10.2
3.2
-0.8
3.5 to 4.5
Nonalcoholic beverages
6.7
0.8
1.5
4.3
1.9
-0.9
2.0 to 3.0
Other foods
10.7
0.8
0.9
5.2
3.7
-0.5
2.5 to 3.5
Note: Bolded entries reflect changes from the previous month's forecast. Green arrows indicate an increase and red arrows indicate a decrease in the forecast from the previous month's forecast.
1BLS-estimated expenditure shares, December 2010. Food prices represent approximately 14 percent of the total CPI.

2Forecasts updated by the 25th of each month.

Sources: Historical data from Bureau of Labor Statistics; forecasts by Economic Research Service. 

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